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In 2009 Russian GDP will not grow, but rather decrease by 4% compared with the current year, as FBK analysts forecast. According to experts, 6.7% growth of GDP planned in the federal budget for the next year shall be considered unrealistic.

According to Igor Nikolaev, Director of FBK Strategic Analysis Department, “the negative dynamics of Russian economy in 2009 is actually preconditioned by a whole number of steady factors”. Among them Mr. Nikolaev named “considerable Russia’s stock market fall that influenced the real sector of economy”. The second factor is decrease of world prices for the main primary commodities of Russian export. “There are no reasons for raise of these prices due to reduction of the aggregate world economic demand”, - the expert noted.

One more factor is accelerated indexation of natural monopolies’ tariffs that “negatively affects the economy”. According to Mr. Nikolaev, “measures taken within fight with the consequences of the world financial crisis do not show the necessary effect but give rise to new problems”. “In particular, this has already led to devaluation of ruble, net outflow of capital abroad, impetuous decrease of international reserves of the Bank of Russia”, - claim Mr. Nikolaev. In the end, as FBK analysts forecast, by the results of November-December 2008 Russian industry would face negative growth rates, while monthly indicators may decrease down to minus 2-4%. “In 2009 products of manufacturing activity will suffer the most: their production will fall by 6%. Production and distribution of electrical energy, gas and water will suffer less (it will decrease by 2.5%). Mining operations will fall by 3% at the most” – Nikolaev notes.

In general, FBK specialists suppose that by the results of 2009 the volume of industrial production in Russia may decrease by 4-5%. As it is noted by experts, the greatest changes in terms of dynamics take place in construction. Within the first months of 2008 the increase in this type of economic activity was 30% on average, and in October it fell down to 5.9%. In 2009 experts forecast decrease of works in construction down to 5%. Decline in volume of production will also touch transport. Here the negative result – minus 0.6% - was already shown in October 2008. Experts note that such trend as decrease of commodity circulation will grow and by the results of 2009 this indicator will be minus 4.5-5.5%. Meanwhile, the economic crisis will be less important for the dynamics of retail trade turnover. According to FBK forecast, in 2009 trade will retain positive growth rates – 5.6%. “These are rather high numbers compared with other types of economic activity, although they are obviously lower that the previous years indicators (14-16%)”, - states Nikolaev.

FBK experts suppose that Russian economy will not come to growth path even in 2010. “One can expect reactivation at least in 2011, and the complete recovery up to the pre-crisis level can be expected at not earlier than 2012-2013”, FBK forecast notes.